Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 0.153079 0.171746 0.191888 0.215252 0.241631 0.270514 0.304570
2025-11-30 0.123777 0.148410 0.176886 0.212302 0.255261 0.305799 0.369937
2025-12-07 0.097673 0.124202 0.156806 0.199962 0.255803 0.325908 0.421058
2025-12-14 0.080051 0.107445 0.143066 0.193023 0.261678 0.353297 0.485799
2025-12-21 0.066683 0.094077 0.131605 0.187147 0.267907 0.382051 0.557372
2025-12-28 0.058552 0.086566 0.126877 0.189658 0.285981 0.429820 0.663939
2026-01-04 0.050508 0.077957 0.119283 0.186757 0.295589 0.466687 0.760798
2026-01-11 0.044614 0.071702 0.114264 0.186933 0.309856 0.512850 0.880593
2026-01-18 0.040180 0.067091 0.111116 0.189548 0.328386 0.568737 1.026772
2026-01-25 0.034618 0.059828 0.102602 0.181805 0.327932 0.592061 1.119412
2026-02-01 0.029735 0.053057 0.093992 0.172571 0.323278 0.606974 1.198887
2026-02-08 0.026229 0.048257 0.088201 0.167586 0.325664 0.635209 1.309414
2026-02-15 0.023130 0.043884 0.082770 0.162811 0.328369 0.665825 1.433806
2026-02-22 0.021364 0.041807 0.081395 0.165826 0.347339 0.732756 1.650236
2026-03-01 0.018873 0.037977 0.076096 0.160054 0.347014 0.759122 1.781524
2026-03-08 0.017007 0.035168 0.072480 0.157302 0.352845 0.800100 1.956158
2026-03-15 0.015376 0.032636 0.069103 0.154564 0.358277 0.841181 2.140159
2026-03-22 0.014458 0.031508 0.068567 0.158141 0.379055 0.922241 2.444452
2026-03-29 0.013267 0.029622 0.066112 0.156869 0.387888 0.975598 2.686874
2026-04-05 0.012360 0.028266 0.064683 0.157856 0.402588 1.046664 2.995299
2026-04-12 0.011660 0.027300 0.064032 0.160680 0.422572 1.135479 3.376545
2026-04-19 0.010500 0.025093 0.060135 0.154626 0.417765 1.155673 3.555128
2026-04-26 0.009387 0.022869 0.055929 0.147156 0.407857 1.159810 3.684880